[Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Scenarios for Key Industries in Jiangsu Province Based on LEAP Model]

In this study, strategies for meeting the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets are developed through an in-depth analysis of future energy demand and carbon emission scenarios in Jiangsu Province. The LEAP model was used to forecast energy demand and carbon emissions under different scenarios from 2021 to 2060. Under the baseline scenario, the energy demand of key industries in Jiangsu Province showed a high rate of growth, with energy consumption increasing by 2.35 times from 2021 to 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 3.46%. In contrast, under the Policy Implementation, Sustainable Development, and Innovation Promotion scenarios, total energy consumption decreased significantly by 45.98%, 58.96%, and 86.13%, respectively, demonstrating varying degrees of energy-saving potential. Projections of carbon emissions showed that the total carbon emissions under the baseline scenario showed a continuous growth trend, reaching 599 million t in 2060, with an average annual growth rate of 4.47%. In contrast, under the Policy Implementation, Sustainable Development, and Innovation Advancement Scenario, carbon emissions were significantly lower, as evidenced by a peak reaching 2025 or 2030 and a gradual decline. The industrial sector decreased year by year, the transportation sector showed an increasing trend, and the construction sector was relatively stable. Overall, with industrial restructuring and technological upgrading, Jiangsu Province is expected to achieve a gradual reduction in carbon emissions, but the increasing trend of carbon emissions from the transportation sector requires further monitoring.