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Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model
Xiuwen Guo1, Yang Gao2, Shaoqing Zhang3
1Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Nature Communications
|December 31, 2024
Summary
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in the subsurface, limiting organism adaptation. This study projects more intense and frequent subsurface MHWs, reducing refuge options for marine life under climate warming.
Area of Science:
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
- Marine Biology
Background:
- Marine organisms adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs) by shifting depth ranges.
- Subsurface MHWs' response to climate warming is poorly understood, yet crucial for adaptation.
- Understanding subsurface MHWs is vital for predicting marine ecosystem responses to climate change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the future response of subsurface MHWs under climate warming.
- To assess the impact of subsurface MHWs on marine organism adaptation strategies.
- To investigate the drivers of subsurface MHWs, including temperature variability.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an eddy-resolving Earth system model.
- Forced the model under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (e.g., RCP8.5).
- Analyzed changes in MHW intensity, frequency, and concurrent events at surface and subsurface levels.
Main Results:
- Projected a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs due to rising mean temperatures and enhanced variability.
- Observed a shift in maximum MHW intensity from 100m depth towards the surface under warming.
- Found increased subsurface MHW intensity and duration, exceeding surface events when long-term warming trends are removed, particularly in key marine ecosystems.
- Documented a tenfold increase in concurrent surface and subsurface MHW days compared to individual events.
Conclusions:
- Subsurface MHWs pose a growing threat to marine organisms by diminishing available refuge areas.
- Increased frequency and intensity of subsurface MHWs, driven by climate change, will challenge marine organism adaptation.
- Concurrent surface and subsurface MHWs amplify the risk, necessitating urgent climate action to protect marine ecosystems.
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