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Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate
Yong Sun1,2, Gilles Ramstein2, Alexey V Fedorov3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
National Science Review
|January 7, 2025
Summary
Global warming impacts the Hadley circulation (HC), affecting drought and food production. Tropical Indian Ocean warming is a key driver of these changes, with Pacific warming contributing to projection uncertainties.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Dynamics
- Oceanography
Background:
- Anthropogenic warming drives changes in atmospheric meridional circulation, specifically the Hadley circulation (HC).
- Weakening and poleward expansion of the HC exacerbate drought and reduce global food production, necessitating an understanding of its future trajectory.
- Sea surface temperature (SST) warming is a primary factor influencing HC dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the mechanisms driving Hadley circulation changes under anthropogenic warming.
- To quantify the impact of regional ocean warming on future HC shifts.
- To identify key oceanic regions and their warming patterns influencing HC projections and associated uncertainties.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of robust future HC changes and projection uncertainties linked to sea surface temperature (SST) warming.
- Conducting a large ensemble of ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming levels.
- Utilizing climate model simulations to isolate the effects of regional ocean warming on the HC.
Main Results:
- Sea surface temperature (SST) warming is strongly correlated with both the magnitude and uncertainty of projected boreal winter Hadley circulation (HC) changes.
- Tropical Indian Ocean warming emerges as the dominant driver of future HC shifts.
- Discrepancies in tropical Pacific Ocean warming simulations among climate models contribute significantly to the uncertainty in HC projections.
Conclusions:
- Future Hadley circulation (HC) changes are predominantly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns.
- Tropical Indian Ocean warming plays a critical role in altering the Hadley circulation (HC).
- Inter-model variability in simulating tropical Pacific warming introduces substantial uncertainty into Hadley circulation (HC) projections, highlighting the need for improved model physics.
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