Correlation of Geographic Variables with the Incidence Rate of Dengue Fever in Mexico: A 38-Year Study

Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes, which is characterized by fever, myalgia and arthralgia. In some cases, it can be fatal. For many years, dengue fever has been endemic to Mexico; however, few studies have investigated the historical and current extents of dengue fever at the national level or considered the effects of variables such as temperature, precipitation and elevation on its occurrence.

An ecological study was carried out to compare the incidence rates of different types of dengue fever per hundred thousand inhabitants with temperature, precipitation and elevation between 1985 and 2023 in Mexico. The sources of information were the public records of the Ministry of Health and the National Meteorological Service. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed with Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients at an alpha of <0.05.

The global linear regression presented an R² of 0.68 between the mean temperature and the cases of haemorrhagic dengue/severe/with warning signs. The degree of rainfall was not strongly correlated with the incidence rate, except in the eastern part of the country, where average temperature was also strongly correlated with the incidence rate. Nonsevere/classic dengue was most common from 1501 to 2000 m elevation, whereas severe forms of the disease were more prevalent at elevations greater than 2000 m.