Assessing the EU27 Potential to Meet the Nature Restoration Law Targets

The Nature Restoration Law adopted by the European Union in 2024 aims to implement measures to restore at least 20% of its land and sea by 2030 and all ecosystems in need of restoration by 2050, focusing on among others agricultural land, forests, urban, marine, freshwater, and wetlands areas. The goal is to enhance the natural and semi-natural habitats' role in achieving climate targets and preserving biodiversity. Member States must submit detailed national restoration plans, outlining specific actions and mechanisms for monitoring progress. However, these plans should align with the ongoing Common Agricultural Policy and National Energy and Climate Plans objectives. Using data from European Commission reports and applying a semantic interval scale methodology, this study quantifies each Member State's ambitions and effectiveness under the National Energy Climate Plans and Common Agricultural Policy and establishes a benchmark for reporting under the Nature Restoration Law. The findings reveal the National Energy Climate Plans' wide disparities in implementing decarbonization measures, climate change adaptation and the implementation of nature-based solutions. The Common Agricultural Policy Plans exhibit only partial commitment to greening agriculture, yet their alignment with Nature Restoration Law objectives varies. Therefore, timely coordination between the three strategies is crucial to avoid conflicting goals, overlapping efforts, and wasting time and resources, ensuring the success of restoration actions.