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Cumulative Risk and Cumulative Protection: Relative Contributions to Predicting Substance Use, Antisocial Behaviour

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Addressing cumulative risk in adolescence is crucial for preventing negative outcomes. While cumulative protection shows some benefit, its impact diminishes when risk factors are also considered, highlighting the need for targeted risk reduction strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Developmental psychology
  • Public health
  • Preventive interventions

Background:

  • Cumulative risk scores predict negative outcomes like antisocial behavior and mental health issues.
  • Limited research exists on cumulative protection, despite available preventive interventions.
  • Understanding childhood risk and protection links to later outcomes can guide prevention timing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the relative impact of early adolescent cumulative risk and protection on outcomes at ages 18-19.
  • To determine the predictive power of risk and protection factors measured in Grade 6.
  • To examine distal outcomes six to seven years post-assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Community Youth Development Study, a community-randomized trial.
  • Analyzed data from 2002 participants in control communities.
  • Employed logistic regression to model effects of cumulative risk and protection on substance use, antisocial behavior, and depression.

Main Results:

  • Both cumulative risk and protection were individually associated with later negative outcomes.
  • When analyzed together, the impact of cumulative protection was reduced, while cumulative risk remained significant.
  • Cumulative risk showed larger outcome prevalence differences (9%) compared to cumulative protection (2%).

Conclusions:

  • Early adolescent cumulative protection is linked to later outcomes, but its associations weaken when cumulative risk is considered.
  • Findings underscore the critical importance of addressing cumulative risk in the design of preventive interventions.
  • Risk-reduction strategies appear more impactful than solely focusing on protective factors.