Improving future agricultural sustainability by optimizing crop distributions in China

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• China's agriculture faces challenges with high input use and environmental degradation.
• Existing strategies for Sustainable Development Goals in agriculture need further exploration of crop switching.
• The impact of climate change on crop production and sustainability is a critical concern.

Purpose of the Study:

• To optimize cropping patterns for enhanced agricultural production and reduced environmental impact in China.
• To assess the potential of crop switching under various future climate change scenarios.
• To achieve sustainable fertilization practices across different Shared Socio-economic Pathways.

Main Methods:

• Spatial optimization of cropping patterns.
• Modeling under three representative Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs).
• Analysis of crop production, nitrogen leaching, irrigation water use, and fertilization rates.

Main Results:

• Optimal crop distribution suggests shifting from maize and rapeseed to other crops like rice, wheat, soybean, peanut, and potato.
• Crop switching is projected to increase overall crop production by 14.1%.
• Significant reductions in environmental impacts are expected: 8.2% for leached nitrogen and 24.0% for irrigation water use.

Conclusions:

• Crop switching offers substantial benefits for improving agricultural sustainability in China.
• Effective fertilizer management is crucial alongside crop switching for environmental protection.
• These strategies are vital for navigating future climate change and achieving sustainable agriculture goals.