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A multi-model study to inform the United States' 2035 NDC
Gokul Iyer1, Alicia Zhao2, Adriana Bryant2
1Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA. giyer@umd.edu.
Nature Communications
|January 14, 2025
Summary
Implementing expanded US policies could achieve 56-67% emissions cuts by 2035, significantly boosting progress towards Paris Agreement goals. Current policies fall short, highlighting the need for ambitious climate action.
Area of Science:
- Climate Change Policy
- Energy Systems Modeling
- Environmental Economics
Background:
- Countries will submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025, crucial for aligning with the Paris Agreement.
- The United States' 2035 NDC ambition is vital for influencing global climate action.
- Current US policies are insufficient to meet long-term climate objectives.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the potential for expanded US federal and state policies to achieve ambitious 2035 emissions reduction targets.
- To assess the impact of these policies on key sectors like renewable energy and transportation.
- To provide a decision-making framework for setting plausible and impactful US climate pledges.
Main Methods:
- Collaboration between four US-based modeling teams.
- Scenario analysis comparing current policies with an expanded set of federal and state policies.
- Economy-wide modeling to project emissions reductions and sectoral impacts.
Main Results:
- Expanded policies could lead to 56-67% economy-wide emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2035.
- Current policies project only 34-44% reductions, indicating a significant gap.
- Potential policies imply a 2-4x increase in renewable capacity, 73-100% reduction in unabated fossil fuel electricity, and 83-100% electric vehicle share in new sales.
Conclusions:
- An expanded policy approach in the US can substantially close the gap towards Paris Agreement goals.
- Modeling demonstrates that ambitious yet plausible 2035 climate targets are achievable.
- The study offers a framework for using modeling to inform future climate policy decisions and international commitments.
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