Global Potential Geographic Distribution of Anthonomus eugenii Under Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis Based...

Area of Science:

• Ecology and environmental science
• Invasive species research
• Climate change impact assessment

Background:

• Climate warming significantly impacts invasive insect pest ranges and population dynamics.
• The pepper weevil (Anthonomus eugenii) is a major invasive pest in the USA and Mexico, with its global distribution under climate change largely unknown.
• Understanding the potential geographic distribution (PGD) is crucial for effective pest monitoring and control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict the global PGD of Anthonomus eugenii under current and future climate change scenarios.
• To identify key environmental variables influencing the pest's distribution.
• To assess potential invasion risks in new regions.

Main Methods:

• An ensemble model (EM) was developed using global distribution data and environmental variables.
• The model predicted PGD under current climate and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 5-8.5) for the 2030s and 2050s.
• Model reliability was validated using True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Area Under the Curve (AUC).

Main Results:

• The ensemble model demonstrated high reliability (TSS=0.825, AUC=0.988).
• Key environmental drivers included mean temperature of the driest/wettest quarter (bio9, bio8) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19).
• Current PGD is concentrated in southern North America and central South America; suitable areas are projected to expand significantly, especially under SSP5-8.5, with distribution centroids shifting poleward.

Conclusions:

• Anthonomus eugenii's suitable habitat is projected to increase substantially with climate change.
• Potential invasion risks are identified in regions including Russia, China, the Republic of the Congo, and Romania.
• Enhanced quarantine and early warning systems are recommended for these vulnerable areas to mitigate economic and biodiversity impacts.