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Detecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East England
Vikki Thompson1,2, Dann Mitchell1, Nathanael Melia3,4
1School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK.
Summary
Record heatwaves in southeast England are increasing wildfire risk. Analysis shows more high-risk fire weather days since the 1960s, necessitating climate change mitigation strategies to address growing wildfire threats.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Meteorology
Background:
- Southeast England faced record heatwaves and urban wildfires in July 2022.
- Previous research has not fully quantified long-term fire weather trends in this region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate historical fire weather trends in southeast England since 1960.
- To assess the relationship between temperature extremes and wildfire risk.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a large ensemble of initialized climate models.
- Analyzed daily fire weather data from the 1960s to the 2010s.
- Quantified changes in the proportion of high, very high, medium, and low fire risk days.
Main Results:
- Annual maximum daily fire weather has significantly increased between the 1960s and 2010s.
- The frequency of summertime days with high and very high fire risk has risen.
- While wildfire risk was elevated during the 2022 heatwave, it did not reach record-breaking levels.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is demonstrably increasing wildfire risk in southeast England.
- The observed trend of increased fire weather necessitates urgent mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Future climate projections indicate a continued rise in wildfire potential.
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