Implications of scale up flexible plastic packaging recycling in the United States

Flexible plastic packaging (FPP) is a growing waste source in the United States. Currently, FPP has a recycling rate of only 2% in the U.S., leaving a significant gap compared to the U.S. government's target of 50% plastic recycling by 2050. This study evaluates the potential economics and environmental benefit of increasing FPP recycling in the United States for use in three downstream product pathways: film, roof coverboard, and pallets. It also investigates possible mechanisms for increasing downstream recyclate demand. This work builds on the authors' previous life-cycle-assessment and techno-economic analysis of a novel FPP recycling pilot facility by building a system dynamics model to simulate market dynamics. The study demonstrates potential widescale FPP recycling deployment scenarios in the U.S. and shows that FPP recycling could increase to 22 - 61% by 2050 with optimistic recycled FPP substitution assumptions. Furthermore, depending on the scenario, products containing recycled FPP showed environmental benefits with greenhouse gas emission savings ranging from 2.7 to 8.2% when compared to the baseline scenario of no additional FPP sorting capacity. A sensitivity analysis of important parameters showed that the model is sensitive to maximum prices for recycled roof coverboard and recycled film for the price capped scenario.