Trends of cause-specific cardiovascular disease mortality in China, 2009-2019: a nationwide longitudinal study

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the top cause of death in China. We aimed to identify trends in cause-specific CVD mortality in a rapidly developing country, thereby providing evidence for CVD prophylaxis.

Using raw data from the Chinese National Mortality Surveillance (CNMS) system, we assessed the mortalities of all CVD and cause-specific CVD during 2009-2019. Temporal trends of crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-standardized mortality (ASMRs) of CVD were evaluated using joinpoint regression models. Age-sex-specific CVD mortality rates were predicted by using age-period-cohort Poisson regression model.

A total of 10,608,402 CVD death occurred during 2009-2019, accounting for 49.8% of all-cause of death in China. The three major CVD types [cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and hypertensive disease (HD)] accounted for 94.6% of total CVD deaths. The CMR of all CVD increased [the annual average percentage change (AAPC) = 3.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6% to 4.1%] while the ASMR decreased (AAPC = -2.0%, 95% CI -3.5% to -0.6%). Cerebrovascular disease is predicted to be the leading cause of CVD death in men and IHD will be the top cause of CVD death in women over the period 2025-2029.

Although the ASMR of total CVD decreased, CVD remained the leading cause of death in China. Cerebrovascular disease, IHD and HD were the major three leading causes of CVD-related death. Inflammatory heart disease-associated death increased in the young population. Attention should be paid to premature deaths associated with cerebrovascular disease and rheumatic heart disease among rural residents.