Tolerance for uncertainty and medical students' specialty choices: A myth revisited

In 1962, the idea emerged that medical students' tolerance of uncertainty could determine their specialty choice. While some studies supported this claim, others refuted it, often using independently developed instruments. We explored whether the reported link between specialty choice and uncertainty tolerance is more myth than evidence by employing established instruments to investigate whether specialty choice could be explained by variance in uncertainty tolerance.

We conducted a cross-sectional online survey at two periods of time. From February to June 2023, we queried 563 final-year medical students from 34 German medical universities (1) on their uncertainty tolerance using three validated tools (the modified tolerance for ambiguity scale, the physicians' reaction to uncertainty scale and the uncertainty intolerance scenario method) and (2) on their intended specialty choice. In a follow-up 1 year later (May to June 2024), 263 of those medical students responded to our query on their final specialty choice and again on their uncertainty tolerance.

Participants' (N = 563) median age was 26.0 years (mean: 27.2; SD = 3.8), and 70% (n = 396) were female. Originally reported differences and rank orders in uncertainty tolerance among medical students with different intended specialty choices could not be replicated for any of the three scales. Instead, our results suggest different rank orders of uncertainty tolerance by different tools, as well as nonsignificant differences between intended medical specialties. Intercorrelation coefficient analyses demonstrated that, depending on the scale, only 0.3% to 1.5% of the variance in uncertainty tolerance could be attributed to specialty choice. Follow-up data using actual instead of intended medical choices left findings unchanged.

Our findings suggest that the presumed link between uncertainty tolerance and specialty choice is more myth than evidence. Instead of teaching this link or using it as an admissions criterion, medical schools should equip students with the skills needed to navigate uncertainty across their careers.