Carbon reduction scenarios and potential analysis of China's information and communications technology industry

The information and communication technology (ICT) industry plays a vital role in high-quality development process but contributes significantly to carbon emissions due to its high energy consumption. Therefore, it is crucial to identify the factors influencing carbon emissions in the ICT industry to achieve carbon neutrality goal in China. Here, this study calculates the carbon emissions of ICT industry from 2000 to 2021 in China and analyzes factors influencing carbon emissions in the ICT industry by extending the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that urbanization, human capital level, economic development level, and fixed asset investment efficiency have a significant positive impact on carbon emissions of the ICT industry. The study also forecasts the evolutionary trends of carbon emissions in the ICT industry from 2022 to 2060 under five scenarios, finding that the ICT industry will achieve carbon peaking in 2030, 2032, and 2033 under all five scenarios, respectively. Under the low-carbon scenario, carbon emissions of the ICT industry will decrease sharply by 2060, and carbon neutrality is expected to be achieved as soon as possible. Therefore, policymakers should increase investment in green technologies in the ICT industry and promote interoperability among sectors.