Estimating very low ejection fraction from the 12 Lead ECG among patients with acute heart failure

Identifying patients with low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in the emergency department using an electrocardiogram (ECG) may optimize acute heart failure (AHF) management. We aimed to assess the efficacy of 527 automated 12‑lead ECG features for estimating LVEF among patients with AHF.

Medical records of patients >18 years old and AHF-related ICD codes, demographics, LVEF %, comorbidities, and medication were analyzed. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) identified important ECG features and evaluated performance.

Among 851 patients, the mean age was 74 years (IQR:11), male 56 % (n = 478), and the median body mass index was 29 kg/m² (IQR:1.8). A total of 914 echocardiograms and ECGs were matched; the time between ECG-Echocardiogram was 9 h (IQR of 9 h); ≤30 % LVEF (16.45 %, n = 140). Lasso demonstrated 42 ECG features important for estimating LVEF ≤30 %. The predictive model of LVEF ≤30 % showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86, a 95 % confidence interval (CI) of 0.83 to 0.89, a specificity of 54 % (50 % to 57 %), and a sensitivity of 91 (95 % CI: 88 % to 96 %), accuracy 60 % (95 % CI:60 % to 63 %) and, negative predictive value of 95 %.

An explainable machine learning model with physiologically feasible predictors may help screen patients with low LVEF in AHF.