Storm Surge Projection and Objective-Based Risk Management for Climate Change Adaptation along the US Atlantic Coast

Area of Science:

• Coastal engineering
• Climate change adaptation
• Hydrodynamic modeling

Background:

• Climate change exacerbates hurricane intensity and sea level rise (SLR) along the US Atlantic coast.
• Coastal inundation from storm surges threatens infrastructure and environmental assets.
• Accurate storm surge projections are critical for coastal adaptation and emergency management but face uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an objective-based analytical-statistical approach for storm surge risk quantification.
• To reduce uncertainties in storm surge projections for climate change adaptation planning.
• To provide location-specific storm surge probability estimates for risk assessment and emergency response.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model.
• Simulated synthetic hurricanes to generate Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and Maximum of the Maximum (MOM) values.
• Analyzed surge height and temporal progression using validated SLOSH model outputs for specific adaptation objectives and uncertainty tolerances.

Main Results:

• Simulated MOMs identified long-term climate risks to infrastructure (e.g., wastewater plants) and environmental assets.
• MEOWs provided location-specific storm surge probability estimates for adaptation analysis.
• Wind-surge probability curves and temporal progression offered quantitative probabilities for emergency planning.

Conclusions:

• The proposed approach effectively quantifies storm surge risks under climate change scenarios.
• The methodology supports informed coastal adaptation planning and enhances emergency response preparedness.
• Case studies demonstrated the practical application of the approach for diverse coastal assets and planning horizons.