Procedural Prescription Denials and Risk of Acute Care Utilization and Spending Among Medicaid Patients

Rising prescription medication costs under Medicaid have led to increased procedural prescription denials by health plans. The effect of unresolved denials on chronic condition exacerbation and subsequent acute care utilization remains unclear.

To examine whether procedural prescription denials are associated with increased net spending through downstream acute care utilization among Medicaid patients not obtaining prescribed medication following a denial.

This cross-sectional study used Medicaid claims data from 2022 to 2023 for patients at inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy sites of care across 2 states (Virginia and Washington) and 2 independent health plans. Patients with at least 1 prescription denial in the study period (January 1 through July 31, 2023) were matched to those without denials in a given medication class, based on demographics, health plan data, chronic condition history, and health care utilization. Rates of and spending for physiologically related acute care visits in the 60 days following a medication fill or denial were compared for the study period.

The main outcomes were all-cause acute care utilization and total medical spending (in 2023 US dollars per member per year [PMPY]) for principal diagnoses physiologically related to each medication class, in the 60 days following a medication fill or denial. Sensitivity analyses were performed to check for spurious associations or unmeasured confounders.

The 19 725 patients in this study had a median age of 41 (IQR, 29-55) years, and most (60.7%) were female. Patients had a mean (SD) of 3.3 (16.1) comorbidities, 1.0 (2.6) all-cause acute care visits, and 5.6 (7.8) primary care visits during the baseline period. Patients experiencing specific procedural prescription denials had a higher risk of physiologically related emergency department visits and hospitalizations compared with those without a denial in the subsequent 60 days (adjusted odds ratio, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.03-1.88] minimum vs 1.75 [95% CI, 1.39-2.20] maximum for exposure and control groups across the 7 medication classes with significant differences). Denials in 6 medication classes were associated with net total medical spending increases, ranging from $624 (95% CI, $435-$813) to $3016 (95% CI, $1483-$4550) in additional expense PMPY after accounting for both prescription and medical costs attributed to denials.

The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that although procedural prescription denials aimed to curb immediate drug costs, some denials prompted heightened acute care utilization and costs that outweighed the short-term prescription budget savings. Health plans should incorporate this potential unintended consequence when shaping prescription coverage policies. Future research should systematically review all medication classes across plans nationally.