Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 12, 2025
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus
Katrin Håkansson1, Daha Hassan Muse2, Anna Bäck3,4
1Department of Oncology, Centre of Cancer and Organ Diseases, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Background:
A previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.
Aim:
to validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF).
Goal:
to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.
Methods:
Validation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).
Results:
The model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.
Conclusions:
The model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.
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01:21Cancer Survival Analysis
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