Estimating Future Obstetrics and Gynecology Workforce Needs in Japan

Area of Science:

• Medical Policy
• Demography
• Health Workforce Planning

Background:

• Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare (MHLW) implemented a 2024 regulation limiting physician overtime to 960 hours annually.
• Concerns exist regarding potential declines in medical care quality due to the new physician overtime regulations.
• Japan's aging population and declining birth rates indicate a future decrease in demand for obstetrics and gynecology (OBGYN) services.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the current and future required number of OBGYN doctors in Japan.
• To analyze the impact of the new overtime regulations on OBGYN workforce needs.
• To project OBGYN workforce requirements considering demographic changes and the overtime limit.

Main Methods:

• A simulation study utilizing Japanese health insurance claims data.
• Projection of future OBGYN demand based on current demand, working hours, and demographic trends.
• Estimation of necessary OBGYN doctors under the 960-hour annual overtime work limit.

Main Results:

• A current shortage of 1,500 OBGYN doctors is identified to comply with the 960-hour overtime limit.
• The required number of OBGYN doctors shows a declining trend, mirroring Japan's population decrease.
• It is projected that all doctors will adhere to the overtime limit around or after 2040, supported by sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions:

• Despite an existing shortage, the future demand for OBGYN doctors in Japan is expected to decrease.
• Promoting inter-hospital and regional communication is crucial for systemic innovations in OBGYN care.
• Strategic workforce planning is necessary to address both current shortages and future demand shifts in OBGYN services.