Socioeconomic and Geographic Differences in Mammography Trends Following the 2009 USPSTF Policy Update

In 2024, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) reversed a 2009 policy recommending only females aged 50 to 74 years complete a biennial mammogram. Understanding whether females facing heterogeneous breast cancer risks responded to the 2009 guidance may illuminate how they may respond to the latest policy update.

To evaluate whether the 2009 policy was associated with changes in mammography screening in females no longer recommended to complete a biennial mammogram and whether these changes varied by factors associated with breast cancer risk.

The difference-in-differences design compared biennial mammogram trends in the exposed groups (aged 40-49 and ≥75 years) with trends of the unexposed groups (aged 50-64 and 65-74 years), before and after the 2009 update. Population-based, repeated cross-sectional survey data came from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) biennial cancer screening module (2000-2018). The sample was restricted to females between ages 40 and 84 years. Data were analyzed from March 1 to June 30, 2024.

The outcome was a binary variable indicating whether the respondent reported a mammogram in the past 2 years (biennial). After 2009, females aged 40 to 49 and 75 or older years were exposed to the policy update, as a complete biennial mammogram was recommended. Subgroup analyses included race and ethnicity, educational level, household income, smoking history, current binge drinking status, and state of residence.

The sample included 1 594 834 females; 75% reported a biennial mammogram. In those aged 40 to 49 years, the USPSTF update was associated with a 1.1 percentage-point (95% CI, -1.8% to -0.3 percentage points) decrease in the probability of a biennial mammogram, with the largest decreases in the non-Hispanic Black population (-3.0 percentage points; 95% CI, -5.5% to -0.5 percentage points). In the aged 75 years or older group, the USPSTF update was associated with a 4.8 percentage-point decrease (95% CI, -6.3% to -3.5 percentage points) in the probability of a biennial mammogram, with significant heterogeneity by race and ethnicity, binge drinking status, and state residence.

In this study, socioeconomic factors were associated with differences in how females responded to the 2009 USPSTF mammography recommendation. Whether the 2024 update considered such differences is unclear. These findings suggest that including risk assessment into future USPSTF policy updates may improve adoption of risk-reducing interventions and shorten the time to diagnosis and treatment for high-risk patients.