Clinical Variables That Predict Liver-related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease Diagnosed by a Liver Biopsy

Objective Identifying patients at high risk of steatotic liver disease (SLD) is crucial. The liver fibrosis stage is the most reliable marker of liver-related mortality. However, non-invasive risk stratification methods remain controversial. Therefore, we analyzed the risk of liver-related events in patients who underwent a liver biopsy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) or cryptogenic SLD at our hospital. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the clinical course of the patients to identify the occurrence of liver-related events. Patients This study included 146 patients diagnosed with SLD through a liver biopsy. Results Liver-related events occurred in 20 patients and were more frequent in those with advanced fibrosis than in those without advanced fibrosis. However, patients with advanced steatosis exhibit reduced disease progression. Patients with obesity and/or diabetes complications had a lower stage of fibrosis and better prognosis than the others. The non-invasive fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prognosis-related "NAFLD outcomes score (NOS)" effectively differentiated patients with disease progression. Standard laboratory data analyses revealed that high total bilirubin and low albumin levels were risk factors. A multivariate analysis with significant factors other than NOS score revealed that the absence of obesity and/or diabetes complications, a high FIB-4 index, and a high total bilirubin level were independent factors for liver-related events. Conclusion A high NOS score, absence of obesity and/or diabetes complications, a high FIB-4 index, and high total bilirubin levels are risk factors for disease progression. Patients with lean phenotypes or non-diabetic SLD should also be assessed using non-invasive markers to determine their risks and potential outcomes.