Global burden of colorectal cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021, with predictions to 2046

Metabolic risks are significant factors associated with colorectal cancer. This study aimed to assess global, regional and national burden for CRC attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021 and to predict mortality by 2046.

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to quantify deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates of CRC due to metabolic risk factors, disaggregated by sex, age, region, country/territory, and sociodemographic index (SDI). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to analyze temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. Metabolic risks include high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and high body mass index (BMI). Future mortality trends up to 2046 were forecast using age-period-cohort models.

Globally, CRC deaths attributable to metabolic risks increased 2.47-fold, rising from 73,443 in 1990 to 181,689 in 2021. The global age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and age-standardized rates of DALYs (ASDRs) of CRC attributable to high FPG and ASDRs attributable to high BMI increased from 1990 to 2021. The ASMRs and ASDRs of males was higher than that of females, with increasing trends. Central Europe had the highest ASMRs and ASDRs of CRC attributable to metabolic risks in 2021. Most regions and countries showed increasing trends in ASMR and ASDR for CRC due to metabolic risks, with Andean Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Cabo Verde increasing the most. High-SDI regions had the largest burden of CRC attributable to metabolic risks, while burden of other SDI regions have been significantly increased. A positive association was observed between SDI and age-standardized rates (ASMR: R_FPG = 0.803, R_BMI = 0.752; ASDR: R_FPG = 0.812, R_BMI = 0.756). By 2046, the ASMR of CRC attributable to high FPG was projected to remain stable and the ASMR due to high BMI was expected to see a slightly increase.

Colorectal cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors remain high, particularly in males and high-SDI regions. Further researches into the metabolic mechanisms of CRC and effective treatment strategies are needed.