Utilizing Curtailed Wind and Solar Power to Scale Up Electrolytic Hydrogen Production in Europe

The growth of European wind and solar power capacity is associated with increasing electricity curtailment to manage excess generation and ensure safe network operations. Instead, this surplus electricity could be used to produce hydrogen, thereby reducing the need for fossil-fueled hydrogen production in ammonia and refining industries. Based on historical data, we estimate the potential for surplus electricity from wind and solar power for 27 countries across Europe. Following an optimization-based approach, we determine the cost-optimal design and operation of a system producing hydrogen from surplus electricity, including the option of battery and hydrogen storage. Two potential applications are analyzed: (1) a fuel-saving scenario, where electrolytic hydrogen substitutes fossil-fuel-derived hydrogen, whenever surplus electricity is available, and (2) a fuel-replacing scenario, where hydrogen from surplus electricity fully replaces a subset of fossil-fueled hydrogen production facilities. Our findings suggest that hydrogen from surplus electricity could substitute 30% (1.9 Mt_H2/y) of fossil hydrogen, reducing ammonia and refinery emissions by 18% (20 Mt_CO2/y). However, fully replacing fossil-fueled hydrogen production facilities increases hydrogen production costs substantially as it requires costly battery and/or hydrogen storage capacity to balance hydrogen production and supply. Nonetheless, about 19% (1.2 Mt_H2/y) of the fossil-fueled hydrogen production could be replaced cost-effectively.