Minimum-Regret Hydrogen and Carbon Supply Chains to Decarbonize European Industrial Hydrogen Demands

Low-carbon hydrogen (H₂) is envisioned to play a central role in decarbonizing European hard-to-abate industries, such as refineries, ammonia, methanol, steel, and cement. To facilitate its widespread use, low-carbon H₂ supply chain (HSC) infrastructure is needed. However, uncertainties around future low-carbon H₂ demands and biomass availability hamper their proliferation. This work investigates the impact of uncertainties in H₂ demand and biomass availability on the optimal HSC design. A linear optimization model is used to determine the cost-optimal HSC design, considering a regional spatial resolution and a multiyear time horizon from 2022 to 2050. CO₂ and biomass infrastructure is designed alongside the HSC. A scenario-based approach is used to derive minimum-regret strategies and support infrastructure development. Results show that investing in scalable H₂ production capacity, targeting 10 Mt/a by 2030, enables flexible expansion to meet larger H₂ demands of up to 35 Mt/a by 2050. Although biomass-based H₂ production is most cost-effective, coupling conventional H₂ production with carbon capture and storage or investments in electrolysis provide more flexibility. Moreover, investments in CO₂ infrastructure are essential, often determining the ability to achieve 2050 climate targets.