Recent distribution changes of invasive Asteraceae species in China: A five-year analysis (2016-2020)

This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of 17 invasive Asteraceae species in China from 2016 to 2020, providing insights into invasion responses during this period. Through innovative integration of high-resolution temporal data, specimen records, city-level environmental variables, and land use changes, we quantified rapid range expansions and identified invasion hotspots across different geographical regions. Our results reveal a significant increase in the average number of provinces occupied per species, from 9.8 in 2016 to 12.3 in 2020, representing a 25.5% expansion. Erigeron canadensis, Erigeron annuus, and Bidens pilosa emerged as the most widespread species, present in 25, 23, and 24 provinces respectively by 2020. Notably, Ageratina adenophora exhibited a 71.4% increase in provincial-level distribution, while Ambrosia artemisiifolia expanded by 54.5%. Generalized Linear Models revealed significant correlations between species spread and environmental factors, with temperature change being a strong predictor for several species (e.g., β = 0.73, SE = 0.21, p < 0.001 for Ambrosia artemisiifolia). Our high-resolution temporal analysis identified three distinct invasion hotspots: northeastern China (centered around Harbin), characterized by increasing temperatures (+0.3 °C) and precipitation (+24.8 mm); the eastern coast (Shanghai to Hangzhou), marked by warming (+0.4 °C) and decreased precipitation (-60.1 mm); and southwestern China (Yunnan), experiencing increased precipitation (+103.5 mm). Urban expansion and transportation networks significantly influenced invasion patterns, with 82% of new Ambrosia artemisiifolia populations occurring within 3 km of major transportation corridors. The study revealed species-specific responses to human activities, with Solidago canadensis showing a 54.2% increase in newly developed urban areas. By demonstrating rapid invasion responses to short-term environmental fluctuations and human activities, this study advances our understanding of immediate invasion dynamics and provides time-sensitive data for adaptive management strategies. Our findings highlight the necessity of continuous short-term monitoring and regionally tailored management approaches in responding to biological invasions under ongoing environmental changes.