Assessing the effectiveness of green consumption policy in China: Evidence from social media data

Measuring the effectiveness of green consumption policy from a front-end perspective, such as residents' willingness, is intuitive and actionable. This study utilizes 38,346 posts from a social media platform and natural language processing model to quantify the green consumption willingness of residents across 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020. Focusing on the Guiding Opinions on Promoting Green Consumption (GOPGC, the first macro-level green consumption policy in China), a regression discontinuity design is employed to assess the policy's impact on residents' green consumption willingness. The results reveal that the implementation of the GOPGC has significantly increased residents' willingness by 13.56%-15.49%, with this effectiveness demonstrating long-term sustainability. Moreover, the effectiveness of the GOPGC is heterogeneous, with the policy exerting a stronger influence on Gen Z, residents outside of northeast China, and in four key consumption domains (green food, green transportation, green housing, and green products). These findings provide valuable insights into how policy interventions influence residents' green consumption willingness, offering beneficial guidance for optimizing green consumption policies and advancing a sustainable society.