Does scientific uncertainty alter public perception of HIV-cure science? A message experiment with U.S. adults

Science communicators often grapple with conveying tentative or incremental research findings to the public, particularly regarding progress made toward treating or curing illnesses and diseases. A growing cohort of studies has utilized message experiments to examine how different approaches for communicating scientific uncertainty impact public perceptions. Extending this program, we examine the effects of communicating different levels of uncertainty on public perceptions of advancements in HIV/AIDS research. Participants (N = 306) were randomly assigned to view one of three messages in a single-factor experiment with low-, medium-, or high-uncertainty tweets. Outcome measures included perceived uncertainty and support for HIV research. Tweets with a greater emphasis on uncertainty decreased individuals' support not just for the research reported but for research in this critical field as a whole; the way individuals interpret the level of uncertainty presented in the tweets played a crucial role in shaping their attitudes towards supporting HIV/AIDS research. Perceived uncertainty mediated this relationship. As the messaging became more uncertain, participants were more likely to perceive higher levels of uncertainty overall. Participants who perceived greater levels of uncertainty were inclined to express a reduced level of support for HIV/AIDS research. The source of the uncertainty influenced message credibility.