Advancing Pancreatic Cancer Prediction with a Next Visit Token Prediction Head on Top of Med-BERT

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) encompass valuable data essential for disease prediction. The application of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly deep learning, significantly enhances disease prediction by analyzing extensive EHR datasets to identify hidden patterns, facilitating early detection. Recently, numerous foundation models pretrained on extensive data have demonstrated efficacy in disease prediction using EHRs. However, there remains some unanswered questions on how to best utilize such models, especially with very small fine-tuning cohorts.

We utilized Med-BERT, an EHR-specific foundation model, and reformulated the disease binary prediction task into a token prediction task and a next visit mask token prediction task to align with Med-BERT's pretraining task format in order to improve the accuracy of pancreatic cancer (PaCa) prediction in both few-shot and fully supervised settings.

The reformulation of the task into a token prediction task, referred to as Med-BERT-Sum, demonstrated slightly superior performance in both few-shot scenarios and larger data samples. Furthermore, reformulating the prediction task as a Next Visit Mask Token Prediction task (Med-BERT-Mask) significantly outperformed the conventional Binary Classification (BC) prediction task (Med-BERT-BC) by 3% to 7% in few-shot scenarios with data sizes ranging from 10 to 500 samples. These findings highlight that aligning the downstream task with Med-BERT's pretraining objectives substantially enhances the model's predictive capabilities, thereby improving its effectiveness in predicting both rare and common diseases.

Reformatting disease prediction tasks to align with the pretraining of foundation models enhances prediction accuracy, leading to earlier detection and timely intervention. This approach improves treatment effectiveness, survival rates, and overall patient outcomes for PaCa and potentially other cancers.