Desertification dynamics and future projections in Qaidam Basin, China

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Ecology

Background:

• Desertification in the Qaidam Basin poses significant threats to ecological balance and human well-being.
• Anomalous climate warming exacerbates desertification, necessitating accurate prediction of its dynamic changes and future trends.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the evolutionary trends and driving forces of desertification in the Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2021.
• To develop a predictive model for desertification using CMIP6 data and assess future trends under various climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Spatio-temporal statistical analyses integrating vegetation coverage (FVC) indices with climatic factors.
• Development of a multivariate pixel-based regression model using CMIP6 data for desertification prediction.

Main Results:

• Severe desertification in the Qaidam Basin reduced by 13% (35,766 km²) between 2000 and 2021, with increases in non-desertification and mild desertification areas.
• The pace of desertification reversal slowed from 2011-2021 compared to 2000-2010, linked to waning temperature and precipitation trends.
• Future projections (2015-2100) under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate declining vegetation coverage, suggesting a worsening desertification trend.

Conclusions:

• While desertification severity decreased initially, future climate change impacts, including glacier melt and reduced water resources, are projected to worsen desertification in the Qaidam Basin, especially in the northeast Qilian Mountains.
• Desertification mitigation efforts may plateau around 2040, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies to address accelerating desertification.
• The study underscores the critical link between climate warming, vegetation dynamics, and desertification, emphasizing the need for integrated environmental management.