Long-term land-use transitions and urban expansion hotspots in Vietnam's Central Highlands

This study analyzes land-use transitions in Vietnam's Central Highlands during 1990-2020, focusing on forest land, agricultural land, and urban land. Using JAXA land-use data, the study applies transition matrix analysis, persistence indicators, and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis to assess major land-use transition patterns and their spatial concentration over time. The results show that the dominant transition throughout the study period was the conversion of forest land to agricultural land. Forest area declined from approximately 4.42 million ha in 1990 to 3.53 million ha in 2020, whereas agricultural land expanded from approximately 1.18 million ha to more than 1.91 million ha. Persistence analysis showed varying persistence patterns between forest and agricultural land across different observation periods, reflecting changing levels of land-use exchange. Urban land exhibited the fastest proportional increase despite its relatively small total area. Spatial hotspot analysis revealed that agricultural-to-urban land conversion was most spatially concentrated during the earlier observation periods, whereas hotspot clusters associated with forest-to-urban land conversion became more widespread after 2010. Overall, the results suggest a gradual transition from predominantly forest-based landscape toward more agriculture- and urban-oriented land-use system in the Central Highlands. Although the study does not directly evaluate causal driving mechanisms, it provides a spatially consistent regional synthesis of transition magnitude, land-use persistence, and hotspot concentration over three decades, establishing an empirical baseline for subsequent explanatory research.