Projected US Radiologist Supply, 2025 to 2055

Area of Science:

• Medical Workforce Planning
• Health Services Research
• Radiology

Background:

• The radiologist workforce is crucial for medical imaging interpretation and diagnosis.
• Understanding future workforce trends is essential for healthcare system planning and ensuring adequate patient care.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the future radiologist workforce size up to the year 2055.
• To analyze the impact of radiology residency positions and attrition on the radiologist supply.

Main Methods:

• Utilized CMS National Downloadable Files (2014-2023) for current supply and attrition modeling.
• Employed nonlinear regression to assess attrition patterns by gender and COVID-19 era.
• Applied linear regression to National Residency Matching Program data (2005-2024) for new entrants.

Main Results:

• Projected 2023 radiologist supply at 37,482.
• Without residency growth, the workforce may reach 47,119 by 2055 (25.7% increase).
• With residency growth, the workforce may reach 52,591 by 2055 (40.3% increase).
• Higher post-COVID-19 attrition rates could lead to 3,116 fewer radiologists by 2055.

Conclusions:

• The radiologist workforce is projected to expand between 25.7% and 40.3% by 2055, contingent on residency position growth.
• Sustained higher attrition rates post-COVID-19 pose a significant risk to future radiologist supply.
• Strategic planning regarding residency positions and addressing attrition factors is critical for workforce stability.