[Development Path of Guangxi to Reach the Carbon Emission Peak Based on STIRPAT Model]

In this work, to ensure that Western China achieves the goal of peaking carbon emissions while developing, considering Guangxi as an example, based on the statistical data of population, economy, society, energy, urban development, and other dimensions from 2000 to 2021, the total amount of carbon emissions and sinks from 2000 to 2021 was calculated according to the recommended formula of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, the key factors affecting carbon emissions based on the ridge regression were identified, the STIRPAT carbon emission prediction model was constructed, and the carbon emissions of Guangxi from 2022 to 2040 were predicted for the three scenarios of different development paths. The results showed that the total carbon dioxide emissions （CO₂） in Guangxi showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2021, growing from 95.49 Mt in 2000 to 390.15 Mt in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 6.93%. Energy structure, industrial structure, and urbanization ratio were the three significant influencing factors on carbon emissions in Guangxi. The carbon emissions could be 623.32 Mt and 591.20 Mt by 2040 in the high-carbon scenario and the medium-carbon scenario, respectively, while in the low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions could reach a peak at 531.99 Mt in 2035. In the three designed scenarios, Guangxi needs to face different emission reduction pressures to realize carbon peaking, and only the low-carbon development path can achieve carbon peaking before 2040. If carbon peaking in Guangxi needs to be achieved by 2030, green, low-carbon, and high-quality development should be further strengthened.