Impact of geopolitical risks and innovation on global defense stock return

This study conducts a comparative analysis of how geopolitical risk (GPR) and innovation impact stock returns in the defense industry based on data from 75 defense companies across 17 countries and 4 continents. With daily datasets spanning from January 1, 2014 to March 29, 2024, wavelet coherence and wavelet phase differences were used to conduct the analysis. The results revealed that innovation had a greater and more pronounced impact during the entire analysis period compared with the influence of GPR events. GPRs exerted an uneven and heterogeneous impact on global defense stocks and had a concentrated impact during events that generated uncertainty. Overall, we found significant time-varying dependence across a large number of companies at different time frequencies. The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a major impact on companies in the defense industry. Further, GPR events led to increased volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to increased uncertainty. In addition to the dominant role they play in the world defense market, US companies served as a robust hedge, especially from 2021 to 2022. Defense companies in the UK are more sensitive to both GPR events and innovation, followed by companies in Germany and France. Comparative analysis of the scalograms of China reveals a greater influence of innovation compared with GPR events. Thus, diversification opportunities have been extended from the defense industry in China, offering investors a promising way to capitalize on refuge opportunities during periods of disruption. To mitigate the global rearmament trend, we suggest alternative investment opportunities for different time horizons.