Evaluating the role of ecological efficiency dependence for sustainable regional economic development in China

The effective use of ecological resources is crucial for ensuring sustainable economic development. However, previous studies assessing the impact of ecological resources on the economy have often overlooked the interacted contributions of total consumption and efficiency of ecological resources, which limited the understanding of actual development patterns. This study expanded the application of a previously introduced Efficiency Dependence Index (EDI) to evaluate the economy's reliance on ecological resources across China's provinces from the dual perspectives of total consumption and efficiency, analyzing resource utilization changes from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, a Sustainable Development Potential Index (SDPI) was developed to predict future sustainable economic development by integrating resource utilization patterns with regional characteristics, supporting tailored strategies for different areas. The key findings were as follows: (1) The ecological efficiencies of primary and secondary industries have been improved significantly in all provinces since the 2000s. (2) The contribution of ecological efficiency to the economy was more significant than the total resource consumption in most provinces in the past two decades. (3) Notable regional development disparities were identified, with developed provinces demonstrating greater potential for sustainable development than the less developed provinces. These results revealed that China's economy is shifting from resource-driven to efficiency-driven. This study can provide valuable insights into economic development patterns and aid in identifying pathways that promote sustainable regional economic growth.