Distorted learning from local metacognition supports transdiagnostic underconfidence.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Clinical psychology
• Neuroscience

Background:

• Anxiety and depression are linked to underconfidence.
• Metacognitive biases, like underconfidence, are not fully understood.
• Individuals should theoretically adjust confidence based on performance.

Purpose of the Study:

• Investigate the origins of underconfidence in individuals with anxious-depression symptoms.
• Examine the relationship between local and global confidence and external feedback.
• Identify mechanisms maintaining underconfidence in subclinical anxious-depression.

Main Methods:

• Two large general population samples (N=230, N=278).
• Measured local task-instance confidence and global long-run self-performance estimates.
• Manipulated external feedback valence and frequency.

Main Results:

• Global confidence adjusted to local confidence and feedback valence.
• Positive feedback increased global confidence; negative feedback decreased it.
• Individuals with higher anxious-depression symptoms showed reduced sensitivity of global confidence to local confidence increases.

Conclusions:

• Blunted sensitivity to personal performance increases contributes to underconfidence in anxious-depression.
• Feedback valence remains influential, but self-monitoring is impaired.
• This provides a mechanistic explanation for persistent underconfidence despite intact performance.