Decoding carbon pathways of Shanghai megacity through historical land use patterns and urban ecosystem transitions

Urbanization induces significant land use changes that profoundly impact carbon stocks by altering terrestrial ecosystems' carbon storage capacity. This study employs integrated FLUS model and InVEST model alongside land use data to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of car-bon stocks in Shanghai from 2010 to 2020. We predict future land use change and carbon stock distribution patterns under various scenarios for Shanghai in 2030. Despite cultivated land representing the largest land use type in terms of area, rapid urbanization has drastically reduced it, largely converting it into construction land. Construction land expands most rapidly under the HUS scenario, prioritizing economic development, and least under the EPS scenario, emphasizing eco-logical protection. Annual carbon stocks declined by 165.06 × 10⁴ Mg from 2010 to 2020, driven by construction land expansion diminishing carbon stocks in cultivated land, woodland, and grassland. Projections for 2030 anticipate carbon stock increases solely under the EPS scenario, contrasting with significant decreases under the NTS and HUS scenarios. This underscores ecological conservation policies' potential to mitigate carbon stock decline, constrain built-up land expansion, and enhance carbon sequestration capacity. Urbanization profoundly influences land use change and carbon stocks, highlighting the critical role of ecological policies in optimizing urban development space and fostering carbon stock growth.