Nomogram for overall survival in ampullary adenocarcinoma using the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results...

Ampullary adenocarcinoma is a rare malignant tumor of the gastrointestinal tract. Currently, only a few cases have been reported, resulting in limited information on survival.

To develop a dynamic nomogram using internal and external validation to predict survival in patients with ampullary adenocarcinoma.

Data were sourced from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results stat database. The patients in the database were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into training and validation groups. Using Cox regression univariate and multivariate analyses in the training group, we identified independent risk factors for overall survival and cancer-specific survival to develop the nomogram. The nomogram was validated with a cohort of patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of the Army Medical University.

For overall and cancer-specific survival, 12 (sex, age, race, lymph node ratio, tumor size, chemotherapy, surgical modality, T stage, tumor differentiation, brain metastasis, lung metastasis, and extension) and 6 (age; surveillance, epidemiology, and end results stage; lymph node ratio; chemotherapy; surgical modality; and tumor differentiation) independent risk factors, respectively, were incorporated into the nomogram. The area under the curve values at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, were 0.807, 0.842, and 0.826 for overall survival and 0.816, 0.835, and 0.841 for cancer-specific survival. The internal and external validation cohorts indicated good consistency of the nomogram.

The dynamic nomogram offers robust predictive efficacy for the overall and cancer-specific survival of ampullary adenocarcinoma.