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Combining Circulating Tumour DNA with Clinical Pathological Risk Factors for Developing Peritoneal Metastasis
Bohan Han1,2, Huabin Hu1,2, Jianwei Zhang1,2
1Department of Medical Oncology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
British Journal of Hospital Medicine (London, England : 2005)
|February 25, 2025
Summary
This study developed a predictive model for peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer (CRC) using circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and clinicopathological factors. The model accurately identifies high-risk patients for early intervention.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Molecular Diagnostics
Background:
- Peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer (CRC) significantly worsens patient prognosis.
- Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) shows promise in predicting CRC recurrence and metastasis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a predictive model for peritoneal metastasis in stage I-III CRC patients.
- Integrate ctDNA with clinicopathological factors for enhanced prediction accuracy.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 299 CRC patients with ctDNA detection.
- Utilized LASSO regression for feature selection and multivariable logistic regression for model construction.
- Data split into training (n=209) and validation (n=90) sets.
Main Results:
- Postoperative ctDNA positivity was linked to an 8.522-fold increased risk of peritoneal metastasis (p < 0.001).
- The predictive model incorporated preoperative CA-125, lymph node stage, perineural invasion, and ctDNA levels.
- Achieved AUC of 0.808 in the training set and 0.784 in the validation set.
Conclusions:
- The developed model accurately identifies high-risk CRC patients for peritoneal metastasis.
- Facilitates early detection and timely intervention for improved patient outcomes.
