Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 25, 2025
04:35
Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
Published on: July 3, 2020
3.3K
Estimating Climate-Sensitive Wildfire Risk and Tree Mortality Models for Use in Broad-Scale U.S. Forest Carbon
Raju Pokharel1, Gregory Latta2, Sara B Ohrel3
1Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
Forests
|February 27, 2025
Summary
This study models wildfire risk and tree mortality in U.S. forests using inventory and climate data. It estimates significant annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from wildfires, aiding in risk management and climate change insights.
Area of Science:
- Forestry and Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Ecological Modeling
Background:
- Wildfires pose significant threats to U.S. forests, causing biomass loss and releasing substantial carbon dioxide (CO2).
- Accurate estimation of wildfire risk and associated CO2 emissions is crucial for effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply models for estimating wildfire risk, tree mortality, and CO2 emissions in U.S. forests.
- To map the spatial distribution of wildfire probability and tree mortality nationwide.
- To demonstrate the utility of these models for identifying high-risk areas and informing policy.
Main Methods:
- Utilized over 150,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots and climatic parameters to build models for wildfire occurrence probability and live tree biomass loss.
- Developed national-level maps illustrating the spatial allocation of wildfire probability and tree mortality.
- Incorporated factors such as climatic conditions, forest ownership, aboveground biomass, and stand age into non-linear models.
Main Results:
- Estimated annual CO2 emissions from U.S. forest wildfires ranging from 6.10 to 31.01 million metric tons, depending on combustion rates (low to catastrophic).
- Identified complex, non-linear relationships between wildfire risk, tree mortality, and influencing factors like climate and forest characteristics.
- Produced national maps visualizing wildfire risk and biomass loss, valuable for stakeholders.
Conclusions:
- The developed models effectively estimate wildfire risk, tree mortality, and potential CO2 emissions in U.S. forests.
- These tools can aid landowners, managers, and agencies in identifying high-risk zones and quantifying potential carbon impacts.
- The models offer a basis for assessing future fire risk under changing climate conditions and understanding climate change-related wildfire dynamics.
Related Concept Videos
01:19Survival Tree
51
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
51
01:14The Carbon Cycle
36.9K
Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
36.9K
01:50Global Climate Change
24.1K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.1K
01:17Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
36
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
36
01:57Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.1K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.1K
01:14Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
324
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
324