Development and Validation of a Heat Risk Mitigation Tool for Burn Survivors

Area of Science:

• Physiology
• Environmental Health
• Rehabilitation Medicine

Background:

• Burn survivors experience impaired thermoregulation, increasing risks of heat illness and limiting physical activity.
• Accurate assessment of heat risk is crucial for burn survivors to engage safely in exercise.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate an online model for burn survivors to estimate their heat risk during physical activity.
• To provide a tool that aids in preventing heat-related illnesses in this population.

Main Methods:

• A predictive model was created using inputs: environmental conditions, exercise intensity/duration, body size, clothing, and burn size.
• The model categorizes heat risk as low-to-moderate (<1.7 °C core temperature change) or high-to-extreme (≥1.7 °C).
• Validation involved laboratory trials with 134 burn survivors and 157 simulated burn participants across diverse environmental and exercise conditions.

Main Results:

• The model achieved 85% predictive accuracy for heat risk.
• Specificity was 85%, sensitivity was 79%, positive predictive value was 27%, and negative predictive value was 98%.

Conclusions:

• A validated online model (www.bsrcalculator.org) accurately predicts heat risk for burn survivors during physical activity.
• This tool empowers burn survivors to understand their risk, enabling safer exercise and promoting an active lifestyle.