Academic mentees thrive in big groups, but survive in small groups

Mentoring is a key component of scientific achievements, contributing to overall measures of career success for mentees and mentors. Within the scientific community, possessing a large research group is often perceived as an indicator of exceptional mentorship and high-quality research. However, such large, competitive groups may also escalate dropout rates, particularly among early-career researchers. Overly high dropout rates of young researchers may lead to severe postdoc shortage and loss of top-tier academics in contemporary academia. In this context, we collect longitudinal genealogical data on mentor-mentee relations and their publications, and analyse the influence of a mentor's group size on the future academic longevity and performance of their mentees. Our findings indicate that mentees trained in larger groups tend to exhibit superior academic performance compared with those from smaller groups, provided they remain in academia post graduation. However, we also observe two surprising patterns: academic survival rate is significantly lower for (1) mentees from larger groups and for (2) mentees with more productive mentors. The trend is verified in institutions of different prestige levels. These findings highlight a negative correlation between a mentor's success and the academic survival rate of their mentees, prompting a rethinking of effective mentorship and offering actionable insights for career advancement.