Excess Mortality in Türkiye during 2020-2022: Regional and Time-Based Analysis

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Demography

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant global mortality, but Türkiye was underrepresented in studies.
• Delayed data and lack of nationwide analyses hindered previous research on Turkish mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify excess mortality rates in Türkiye between 2020 and 2022.
• To analyze temporal trends, regional disparities, and factors associated with excess deaths.
• To assess the impact of socioeconomic status and healthcare access on mortality.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional ecological analysis of all-cause mortality data (2015-2022).
• Quasi-Poisson Regression models used to project deaths and calculate excess mortality.
• Analysis incorporated vaccination coverage, elderly population ratios, ICU beds, and family physician availability.

Main Results:

• Türkiye recorded 247,640 excess deaths (2020-2022), peaking in 2021 (121,426 deaths).
• Lower vaccination coverage and higher population per family physician correlated with increased excess mortality.
• Socioeconomically disadvantaged regions showed higher relative mortality increases.

Conclusions:

• Substantial excess mortality occurred in Türkiye, particularly in 2021, influenced by regional socioeconomic factors and healthcare access.
• Findings emphasize the need to address sociodemographic disparities and enhance primary healthcare for pandemic preparedness.