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Current and Projected Future Supply and Demand for Physical Therapists From 2022 to 2037: A New Approach Using

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  • 1GlobalData Plc., New York, NY 10017, United States.

Physical Therapy
|March 4, 2025
PubMed
Summary

The U.S. physical therapist workforce faces a projected shortfall through 2037. Without interventions to increase supply or retention, this shortage will likely persist, impacting patient access to care.

Keywords:
Data CollectionData InterpretationEconomicsPhysical TherapistsProfessional IssuesQuality of Health CareStatisticalWork Capacity EvaluationWorkplace

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Area of Science:

  • Health Workforce Analysis
  • Healthcare Economics
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Physical therapist (PT) workforce trends are crucial for understanding potential healthcare shortages.
  • Evaluating the adequacy of the PT workforce is essential to meet evolving population health needs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the current and projected adequacy of the physical therapist workforce in the United States.
  • To forecast physical therapist supply and demand nationally and by state through 2037.

Main Methods:

  • Cross-sectional study utilizing survey data, administrative databases, and microsimulation modeling.
  • Supply modeling incorporated data from the Federation of State Boards of Physical Therapy (FSBPT) and the American Physical Therapy Association (APTA).
  • An online survey of APTA members (n=1759) collected data on demographics, practice, workload, and retirement intentions.

Main Results:

  • In 2022, an estimated 233,890 full-time equivalent (FTE) physical therapists were in the workforce, with a projected shortfall of 5.2%.
  • Despite projected growth in supply exceeding demand growth between 2022 and 2037, a national shortfall is anticipated to persist.
  • By 2037, a projected shortfall of 9,120 FTEs (3.3%) is expected in the main scenario, with supply reaching 273,070 FTEs and demand 282,230 FTEs.

Conclusions:

  • A persistent national physical therapist shortfall is likely without measures to increase workforce entry or improve retention.
  • Targeted policy interventions are necessary to address projected workforce shortages.
  • Further research into health care workforce forecasting methodologies is warranted.