SURGE-ahead postoperative delirium prediction: external validation and open-source library

In this prospective external validation study, we examined the performance of the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI (SURGE-Ahead) postoperative delirium (POD) prediction algorithm. SURGE-Ahead is a collaborative project that aims to develop a clinical decision support system that uses predictive models to support geriatric co-management in surgical wards. Delirium is a common complication in older adults after surgery, leading to poor outcomes and increased healthcare costs. Early and accurate prediction of POD is crucial for timely intervention and prevention strategies.

The SURGE-Ahead algorithm utilizes a linear support vector machine model with a comprehensive set of 15 clinical and demographic features. In our validation, we analyzed 173 study participants, of which 50 developed POD.

The study found that the SURGE-Ahead POD prediction algorithm yielded state-of-the-art performance, using only preoperative data, with a receiver operating characteristics area under the curve of 0.86. In addition, the SURGE-Ahead algorithm exhibited good calibration as shown by a Brier Score of 0.14. The algorithm is openly available on GitHub, facilitating its implementation and adaptation to different surgical settings.

Our findings contribute to the development of reliable POD prediction tools, ultimately supporting the improvement of patient care in hospitalized older adults.