Spatial-temporal modeling of urban resilience and risk to earthquakes

In the face of burgeoning urbanization, cities and residential areas are increasingly vulnerable to diverse hazards. This research develops a spatial-temporal assessment of Bojnord City's earthquake risk and resilience, concentrating on the morning, evening, and nighttime periods. After a thorough assessment of the literature, the research identified seven key criteria and 27 sub-criteria that address important aspects. Fuzzy logic was utilized for data standardization and the DANP approach was employed to weight the criteria in order to appropriately assess resilience and risk. The IO and OWA models were used to integrate these criteria, and the results showed notable spatial and temporal disparities in risk and resilience. The results highlight the significance of integrating both temporal and spatial aspects in risk assessments and urban resilience evaluations to enhance the effectiveness of disaster management plans. The findings demonstrate that some regions are always at high risk and low resilience, regardless of the time of day, emphasizing the necessity of focused, continuous disaster preparedness plans. This approach not only validates the consideration of the dynamic criteria but also provides a replicable methodology for other cities facing similar seismic threats.