Temporal Radiographic Trajectory and Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Longitudinal Study

Currently, little is known about the relationship between the temporal radiographic latent trajectories, which are based on the extent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia and clinical outcomes. This study aimed to elucidate the differences in the temporal trends of critical laboratory biomarkers, utilization of critical care support, and clinical outcomes according to temporal radiographic latent trajectories.

We enrolled 2,385 patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and underwent serial chest radiographs from December 2019 to March 2022. The extent of radiographic pneumonia was quantified as a percentage using a previously developed deep-learning algorithm. A latent class growth model was used to identify the trajectories of the longitudinal changes of COVID-19 pneumonia extents during hospitalization. We investigated the differences in the temporal trends of critical laboratory biomarkers among the temporal radiographic trajectory groups. Cox regression analyses were conducted to investigate differences in the utilization of critical care supports and clinical outcomes among the temporal radiographic trajectory groups.

The mean age of the enrolled patients was 58.0 ± 16.9 years old, with 1,149 (48.2%) being male. Radiographic pneumonia trajectories were classified into three groups: The steady group (n = 1,925, 80.7%) exhibited stable minimal pneumonia, the downhill group (n = 135, 5.7%) exhibited initial worsening followed by improving pneumonia, and the uphill group (n = 325, 13.6%) exhibited progressive deterioration of pneumonia. There were distinct differences in the patterns of temporal blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels between the uphill group and the other two groups. Cox regression analyses revealed that the hazard ratios (HRs) for the need for critical care support and the risk of intensive care unit admission were significantly higher in both the downhill and uphill groups compared to the steady group. However, regarding in-hospital mortality, only the uphill group demonstrated a significantly higher risk than the steady group (HR, 8.2; 95% confidence interval, 3.08-21.98).

Stratified pneumonia trajectories, identified through serial chest radiographs, are linked to different patterns of temporal changes in BUN and CRP levels. These changes can predict the need for critical care support and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 pneumonia. Appropriate therapeutic strategies should be tailored based on these disease trajectories.