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Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict extinction risk from climate change. However, translating SDM outputs to extinction risk faces challenges, requiring careful communication of uncertainties.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for predicting extinction risk due to climate change.
  • Current methods often misapply IUCN Red List criteria and rely on poorly understood relationships between range size and extinction risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review the conceptual and methodological challenges in translating SDM results to extinction risk.
  • To summarize best practices for using SDMs to assess climate-related extinction risk and inform IUCN Red List classifications.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review of studies predicting species extinction risk from climate change using SDMs.
  • Analysis of the relationship between range size decline and extinction risk.
  • Evaluation of SDM assumptions in the context of climate change.

Main Results:

  • Translating SDM range predictions to extinction risk is conceptually and methodologically challenging.
  • SDM assumptions are often unmet under climate change, and the link between range decline and extinction risk is not well-established.
  • Despite limitations, SDMs remain the most accessible method for assessing climate-driven extinction risk.

Conclusions:

  • SDMs can be used to classify species into IUCN extinction risk categories and predict threats under future climate, but with significant uncertainties.
  • Accurate communication of uncertainties in predicted range declines is crucial.
  • Extinction predictions require carefully conducted SDMs that openly acknowledge their limitations.