Navigating the precipice: Lessons on collapse from the Late Bronze Age

Area of Science:

• Archaeology
• Network Science
• Sociology

Background:

• The Late Bronze Age (LBA) Eastern Mediterranean experienced widespread societal collapse around 1200 BCE.
• Archaeological evidence reveals destroyed and abandoned urban centers across the region.
• Previous research suggests a systemic failure rather than isolated incidents.

Purpose of the Study:

• To test the hypothesis that LBA societal network structure amplified threats, causing a cascade of failures.
• To analyze the role of interconnectedness in systemic collapse.
• To draw parallels between LBA vulnerabilities and contemporary global challenges.

Main Methods:

• Network analysis of Late Bronze Age societies.
• Examination of archaeological data on city destruction and abandonment.
• Comparative study of historical systemic collapse and modern global risks.

Main Results:

• The study supports the hypothesis that the LBA network structure propagated problems, contributing to systemic collapse.
• Interconnectedness, while facilitating prosperity, also amplified vulnerabilities.
• The findings highlight how network dynamics can lead to cascading failures.

Conclusions:

• The collapse of LBA societies was exacerbated by their interconnected network structure.
• Understanding historical network vulnerabilities provides insights into current global systemic risks.
• Modern complex systems may face similar risks as they approach carrying capacity.