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Predicting mortality in geriatric patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: a retrospective comparative study of four
Omerul Faruk Aydin1, Ali Cankut Tatlıparmak2
1Department of Emergency Medicine, İstanbul Yeni Yüzyıl University, İstanbul, Turkey.
Insights
The AIMS65 score is the most accurate tool for predicting mortality in elderly patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). This finding helps improve risk stratification for high-risk geriatric patients with PUB.
Area of Science:
- Gastroenterology
- Geriatric Medicine
- Clinical Epidemiology
Background:
- Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) poses a significant mortality risk, particularly in older adults.
- Several scoring systems, including AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS), T-score, and Age, Blood tests, and Comorbidities (ABC) score, are used for risk stratification in PUB.
- The comparative effectiveness of these tools in the geriatric population requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the predictive performance of AIMS65, GBS, T-score, and ABC score for in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients with PUB.
- To identify the most accurate scoring system for risk stratification in this vulnerable patient group.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of patients aged 65 and older diagnosed with PUB.
- Inclusion criteria: diagnosis of PUB between January 1, 2019, and January 1, 2024.
- Data collected: demographics, clinical presentation, lab results, comorbidities; calculation of AIMS65, GBS, T-score, and ABC score; primary outcome: in-hospital mortality.
Main Results:
- A total of 315 geriatric patients with PUB were analyzed, with an in-hospital mortality rate of 7.9%.
- AIMS65 demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy (AUROC: 0.829), followed by the ABC score (AUROC: 0.775).
- GBS (AUROC: 0.694) and T-score (AUROC: 0.526) showed lower predictive performance; AIMS65 significantly outperformed GBS (p=0.0214).
Conclusions:
- AIMS65 and ABC scores are superior to GBS and T-score in predicting in-hospital mortality for geriatric patients with PUB.
- These findings support the use of AIMS65 and ABC scores for improved risk stratification and clinical decision-making in elderly PUB patients.
Background:
Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in geriatric patients. Risk stratification tools such as AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS), T-score, and Age, Blood tests, and Comorbidities (ABC) score are frequently used to predict outcomes in PUB patients. This study aims to compare the predictive performance of these four scoring systems in geriatric patients with PUB.
Methods:
This retrospective cohort study included patients aged 65 years and older who were diagnosed with PUB between January 1, 2019, and January 1, 2024, in a tertiary care hospital. Data collected included demographic information, clinical presentation, laboratory results, and comorbidities. AIMS65, GBS, T-Score, and ABC score were calculated for each patient. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.
Results:
A total of 315 patients were included in the study, with an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 7.9%. AIMS65 had the highest area under the curve (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.829), followed by the ABC score (AUROC: 0.775). The GBS (AUROC: 0.694) and T-score (AUROC: 0.526) demonstrated lower predictive performance. Pairwise comparisons showed a statistically significant difference between the AIMS65 and GBS (p = 0.0214). AIMS65 was the most accurate predictor of in-hospital mortality in geriatric PUB patients.
Conclusion:
The AIMS65 and ABC scoring systems are more effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients with PUB compared to the GBS and T-Score. Implementing these tools in clinical practice could improve risk stratification and decision-making processes in managing high-risk elderly patients.
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