Disruption of Biological Processes in the Anthropocene: The Case of Phenological Mismatch

Biologists are increasingly documenting anthropogenic disruptions, both at the organism and ecosystem levels, indicating that these disruptions are a fundamental, qualitative component of the Anthropocene. Nonetheless, the notion of disruption has yet to be theorized. Informally, disruptions are direct or indirect consequences of specific causes that impair the contribution of parts of living systems to their ability to last over time. To progress in this theorization, we work here on a particular case. Even relatively minor temperature changes can significantly impact plant-pollinator synchrony, disrupting mutualistic interaction networks. Understanding this phenomenon requires a specific rationale since models describing it use both historical and systemic reasoning. Specifically, history justifies that the ecosystem initially exists in a very narrow part of the possibility space where all its populations are viable, and the disruption leads to a more generic configuration where some populations are not viable. Building on this rationale, we develop a mathematical schema inspired by Boltzmann's entropy, apply it to this situation, and provide a technical definition of disruption.